Materials & Commodities · band window Nov 13 – Nov 20
MP MATERIALS
Equity · US · Rare Earths
Inside the expected range. No statistical dislocation.
Price basis: 2026-11-13 US regular-session close · candle and GEX OI timestamps are shown separately on the chart.
This link opens the latest data for this symbol.
30-minute candles · US regular session (ET)
2024-09-06 – 2026-11-13 · measured on each week's last regular-session close
Of MP's 115 settled weeks, 83 (72.2%) finished inside ±1σ on the week's last close. 24 (20.9%) finished at or above +1σ and 8 (7.0%) at or below −1σ. A normal distribution puts 68.3% inside and about 15.9% beyond each side. Given 115 weeks, the gap from theory is within what chance alone produces. Breaks skewed upward: more weeks finished above +1σ than below −1σ.
This week's band of ±9.2% is 0.98× the symbol's median width of ±9.4% and ranks #63 widest of 184 tracked symbols. That is close to its usual width.
The week that finished furthest from its anchor closed 2025-07-11 at +3.98σ. The most recent finish outside was 2026-10-16 (−1.85σ), followed by 4 straight weeks inside.
Past shares do not predict next week. A week that broke the band intraday but closed back inside counts as inside. The universe-wide measurement and its method are in the weekly ±1σ coverage study.
Each date uses its own weekly band · settled bands are retained
Click or tap the chart to see prices.
Price ($)
Shading: historic ±1σ · dots: close at or beyond the band
Prices shown 2025-11-13–2026-11-13 · 252 sessions
Sigma bands: 252/252 sessions
| Close date | Sigma | +1W | +2W | +4W |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.92σ | — | — | — | |
| −0.96σ | +9.38% | — | — | |
| +0.42σ | −10.51% | −2.12% | — | |
| −0.56σ | +3.32% | −7.55% | — | |
| −1.85σ | −4.66% | −1.49% | −3.58% | |
| −0.24σ | −12.94% | −16.99% | −23.26% | |
| −0.53σ | −1.77% | −14.48% | −15.75% | |
| +0.47σ | −3.81% | −5.51% | −21.56% | |
| −0.83σ | +3.32% | −0.61% | −15.00% | |
| −0.95σ | −6.43% | −3.33% | −8.65% | |
| −0.32σ | −7.37% | −13.33% | −13.86% | |
| −0.68σ | −2.85% | −10.01% | −13.01% |
Close-to-close price changes, excluding dividends and costs. — means future or unavailable. Predictive value is still under validation.
Dealer gamma stacked at each strike. The dashed lines are this week's ±1σ edges, so whether a thick strike and a band edge land on the same price is readable in one view.
Hedging leans against the move, so the strikes below tend to hold.
All expirations, strikes within ±10% of spot. Open interest settles once a day, so these levels move on the same cadence as the σ band.
A daily snapshot, not a live quote. Prices are taken as the upstream feed supplies them.