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Market closedUpdated Sep 25 close
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Guide

Where the market sits inside its own range

SigmaRange does not tell you whether a stock is cheap. It tells you how much of the move its own options were priced for has already happened — and that is a different question, with a different use.

≈ 68% of expected outcomes
−1.5σ−1σAnchor+1σ+1.5σ
Further down than the week was priced forInside the range the options market paid forFurther up than the week was priced for

Mechanics

How the band is built

Three inputs, one of which changes every week and two of which do not move at all once the week starts.

01

The anchor

Friday's regular-session close. It is fixed for the whole week — the band does not roll forward, and Wednesday is measured against the same price Monday was.

02

The width

The 1σ move the options market prices for the week ahead, as a percentage of the anchor. It comes from implied volatility, not from past returns, so it widens before an earnings week on its own.

03

The reading

Distance from the anchor divided by that width. One number, on the same scale for every symbol, which is what makes a $9 name and a $900 name comparable at all.

Worked example

A stock closes Friday at $200 and its options price a ±5% week. That makes the anchor $200, the lower edge $190 and the upper edge $210. Then $205 reads +0.50σ, $210 reads +1.00σ and lands on the above-1σ list, and $185 reads −1.50σ and is called oversold. The same arithmetic runs on every symbol, which is why one board can hold both a $9 stock and a $900 one.

Reading

What each reading is called

Five states, and the board never uses any others. The thresholds are the same ones the upstream weekly alert scores against.

OVERHEATEDAbove +1.5σ

More than 1.5 standard deviations above the anchor close. Statistically stretched to the upside.

+1σAbove +1σ

Broke the upper 1σ edge of its expected range but has not reached the overheated threshold.

NORMALWithin ±1σ

Inside the expected range. No statistical dislocation.

−1σBelow −1σ

Broke the lower 1σ edge of its expected range but has not reached the oversold threshold.

OVERSOLDBelow −1.5σ

More than 1.5 standard deviations below the anchor close. Statistically stretched to the downside.

Limits

What a reading does not say

The most expensive way to use this board is to read a band edge as an instruction.

−1σ means buy

It means the fall is already larger than the week was priced for. That happens because something changed, and the something is usually still true tomorrow.

+1σ means sell

Strong trends spend whole weeks outside the upper edge. A band tells you the move is unusual, not that it is finished.

A wide band means bullish

Width is a statement about range, not direction. A ±12% band says the options market expects a big week either way.

The band reacts to news

It is struck once, on Friday. An earnings miss on Tuesday does not widen it — which is exactly why a reading can run to −2σ and keep going.

Confluence

SigmaRange × dealer gamma

The one screen on this site that does not come from the band alone — and the reason a level here is worth more than a round number.

Two different inputs

−1σ
Comes from implied volatility: what the options market paid for range this week. It is a statement about how far price was expected to travel.
Positive GEX
Comes from open interest: a strike where dealers are long enough gamma that hedging it means buying into weakness. It is a statement about where flow concentrates.

Neither is derived from the other. When they land on the same price, the level is corroborated rather than restated — which is the only reason the screen exists.

What the screen actually requires

  • The strongest positive-GEX strike below spot. A secondary strike that happens to line up is a coincidence, not a level.
  • Within half a percent of the −1σ edge — at typical strike spacing, usually one strike wide.
  • At least 15% of the positive gamma sitting near spot, and at least twice the next-strongest strike. A strike can clear one of those on its own and still be noise.

Call the result a reaction zone, not support. Gamma is a position, and positions change — the level can be gone by Thursday.

Case study · SNDK

When the two levels agreed

Sandisk, band window Aug 24 – Aug 28, 2026. The −1σ edge and the week's dominant gamma strike landed 0.16% apart — close enough that on a chart they are one line.

Anchor $1,596.08−1σ $1,432.32GEX $1,430.00MonTueWedThuFri$1,416.56$1,564.99
Anchor · Fri 08-21
$1,596.08
1σ for the week
±10.26%
−1σ edge
$1,432.32
Gamma strike · −0.16%
$1,430.00
Share of nearby gamma
36% · 82× next

Monday

$1,416.56

−1.10σ · through both levels

The week opened six percent below the anchor and kept going. The low printed under the gamma strike inside the first hour — and was the only print of the week below it. The close came back to $1,493.12, −0.63σ. On a daily candle the level held.

Tuesday

$1,564.99

+10.5% off Monday's low

The session traded up to $1,564.99 before giving back more than half of it. That is the whole case for watching a confluence zone: not that it predicted a bottom, but that the reaction when price reached it was large enough to be worth being early for.

Friday

$1,435.61

−0.98σ · tested again

Price came back to the same shelf four sessions later, stopped five dollars above the strike, and closed the week at $1,484.98 — −0.68σ, inside the band. Twice tested, twice held on a closing basis.

The honest part

The screen only looks at strikes near spot, so it did not name SNDK until the 2026-08-25 board — after Monday's test, not before it. The gamma was already there on Monday's settlement, and it was the largest positive-gamma strike anywhere below spot, but price had not yet come close enough for the screen to see it. That is the shape of the tool: it narrows a board of 123 names down to the few worth watching, and it does not time anything. Had the week gone the other way, the same two lines would have broken and this would be an example in the section above.

Workflow

A way to read the board

Top down, and never starting with the individual name — a symbol at −1σ means something different on a day when forty others are too.

  1. 01Start with the benchmarks. Where SPY, QQQ and SOXX sit tells you whether a single name has moved or the whole tape has.
  2. 02Read the sector map. One sector stretched while the rest sit at their anchors is a different story from a board that moved together.
  3. 03Open the ±1σ lists. These are the names whose week has already exceeded what their own options were priced for.
  4. 04Check the gamma floors. A −1σ edge with a dominant positive-GEX strike on it is two independent levels agreeing on a price.
  5. 05Confirm somewhere else. Volume, the news, the options flow, the chart — the board tells you where to look, not what happened.
  6. 06Decide. A level is a place to watch price react, not an instruction to act when it is touched.

Reference

What each list is for

Every page reads the same snapshot and the same band. They differ only in what they select.

Sigma monitorEvery tracked symbol with its live reading, grouped by sector when no filter is applied.Trading above +1σNames that have left the upper edge of their own weekly range.Trading below −1σThe same on the downside — the list the gamma-floor screen draws from.GEX floor at −1σWhere a dominant dealer-gamma strike lands on the −1σ edge. The one screen that combines two independent inputs.Widest expected moveWhere the options market is paying for the most room this week. A range statement, never a direction.My SigmaYour own names only, scored on the same band as everything else.

FAQ

Questions this board keeps raising

Why is every symbol at 0.00σ before Monday?+

Because the band was just struck. Friday's close becomes the new anchor, so until the market trades again every symbol sits exactly on it by construction. On that day the board is showing the range for the week ahead, not a result.

Where does the 1σ number come from?+

From the option-implied move for the week ahead, converted into a true 1σ before it reaches this site. Nothing here derives a band from past price movement.

What are the odds at each σ?+

The ones from a statistics class. About 68% of outcomes land within ±1σ, 87% within ±1.5σ, 95% within ±2σ and 99.7% within ±3σ. One side is half of what is left over: past +1σ is roughly one week in six, past +1.5σ one in fifteen, past +2σ one in forty. Those are the odds the options market priced, not a law of nature — real returns have fatter tails than the bell curve, so the extremes show up somewhat more often than the table says.

Why is this range wider than the expected move I see elsewhere?+

Most feeds quote the at-the-money straddle scaled by about 0.85, which is roughly a 0.68σ move — the range price stays inside about half the time. A 1σ range is the one price stays inside about 68% of the time, so it is about 1.47 times wider. It is a unit conversion, not a safety margin.

What is a GEX floor?+

A strike below spot where dealers hold enough positive gamma that hedging it means buying into weakness. It is derived from open interest, not from implied volatility, which is why a gamma strike landing on the −1σ edge counts as corroboration rather than the same number said twice.

Does a reading past ±1σ mean the move is over?+

No. It means the move is bigger than the week was priced for. A σ reading measures how unusual a move is; it says nothing about what comes next.

How often does the board update?+

Prices refresh through the session. The band itself is struck once a week from Friday's close and stays fixed until the next one.

Is this investment advice?+

No. Everything here is a measurement of published market data, offered as a way to decide what deserves a closer look.

Band window Sep 25 – Oct 2

Anchored on the Sep 25 close.

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σSigmaRange

A statistical view of the market: where each symbol sits inside its own expected range, rather than another list of prices.

BoardMy SigmaCalculatorGuideTrading above +1σTrading below −1σGEX floor at −1σWidest expected moveToday’s card
Band anchor
Sep 25 close
Band window
Sep 25 – Oct 2

Settled regular-session closes and option-implied move data. Not investment advice.

1σ ≈ 68% of expected outcomes