Industrials & Defense · band window Nov 13 – Nov 20
CATERPILLAR
Equity · US · Construction Equipment
Inside the expected range. No statistical dislocation.
Price basis: 2026-11-13 US regular-session close · candle and GEX OI timestamps are shown separately on the chart.
This link opens the latest data for this symbol.
30-minute candles · US regular session (ET)
2024-09-06 – 2026-11-13 · measured on each week's last regular-session close
Of CAT's 113 settled weeks, 73 (64.6%) finished inside ±1σ on the week's last close. 23 (20.4%) finished at or above +1σ and 17 (15.0%) at or below −1σ. A normal distribution puts 68.3% inside and about 15.9% beyond each side. Given 113 weeks, the gap from theory is within what chance alone produces.
This week's band of ±6.3% is 1.47× the symbol's median width of ±4.3% and ranks #92 widest of 184 tracked symbols. The options market is pricing a larger move than usual; check whether an earnings release or similar event falls inside the week.
The week that finished furthest from its anchor closed 2025-01-17 at +2.87σ. The latest week (2026-11-13) finished outside, at +1.04σ.
Past shares do not predict next week. A week that broke the band intraday but closed back inside counts as inside. The universe-wide measurement and its method are in the weekly ±1σ coverage study.
Each date uses its own weekly band · settled bands are retained
Click or tap the chart to see prices.
Price ($)
Shading: historic ±1σ · dots: close at or beyond the band
Prices shown 2025-11-13–2026-11-13 · 252 sessions
Sigma bands: 242/252 sessions · missing bands show price only
Anchor-date IV unverified for 10 sessions · bands and sigma hidden
| Close date | Sigma | +1W | +2W | +4W |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1.04σ | — | — | — | |
| −1.51σ | +7.43% | — | — | |
| −1.01σ | −10.30% | −3.63% | — | |
| −1.04σ | −9.35% | −18.69% | — | |
| −1.93σ | −5.99% | −14.78% | −17.87% | |
| −1.20σ | −8.71% | −14.18% | −30.21% | |
| +0.63σ | −5.32% | −13.56% | −26.34% | |
| +0.12σ | −1.17% | +0.37% | −2.21% | |
| +0.40σ | +0.57% | −0.61% | +3.87% | |
| −0.67σ | +1.71% | +2.29% | +2.67% | |
| −0.69σ | −3.34% | −1.69% | −2.28% | |
| +0.32σ | −3.35% | −6.58% | −4.44% |
Close-to-close price changes, excluding dividends and costs. — means future or unavailable. Predictive value is still under validation.
Dealer gamma stacked at each strike. The dashed lines are this week's ±1σ edges, so whether a thick strike and a band edge land on the same price is readable in one view.
Hedging leans against the move, so the strikes below tend to hold.
+1σ $638.13 · −1σ $562.15 — outside the published strike window ($572.50–$630.00), so not drawn on the ladder above.
All expirations, strikes within ±10% of spot. Open interest settles once a day, so these levels move on the same cadence as the σ band.
A daily snapshot, not a live quote. Prices are taken as the upstream feed supplies them.