China ADR · band window Nov 13 – Nov 20
ALIBABA
Equity · China
Inside the expected range. No statistical dislocation.
Price basis: 2026-11-13 US regular-session close · candle and GEX OI timestamps are shown separately on the chart.
This link opens the latest data for this symbol.
30-minute candles · US regular session (ET)
2024-09-06 – 2026-11-13 · measured on each week's last regular-session close
Of BABA's 115 settled weeks, 79 (68.7%) finished inside ±1σ on the week's last close. 20 (17.4%) finished at or above +1σ and 16 (13.9%) at or below −1σ. A normal distribution puts 68.3% inside and about 15.9% beyond each side. Given 115 weeks, the gap from theory is within what chance alone produces.
This week's band of ±9.4% is 1.71× the symbol's median width of ±5.5% and ranks #61 widest of 184 tracked symbols. The options market is pricing a larger move than usual; check whether an earnings release or similar event falls inside the week.
The week that finished furthest from its anchor closed 2024-09-27 at +6.06σ. The latest week (2026-11-13) finished outside, at −2.08σ.
Past shares do not predict next week. A week that broke the band intraday but closed back inside counts as inside. The universe-wide measurement and its method are in the weekly ±1σ coverage study.
Each date uses its own weekly band · settled bands are retained
Click or tap the chart to see prices.
Price ($)
Shading: historic ±1σ · dots: close at or beyond the band
Prices shown 2025-11-13–2026-11-13 · 252 sessions
Sigma bands: 252/252 sessions
| Close date | Sigma | +1W | +2W | +4W |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −2.08σ | — | — | — | |
| +1.97σ | −13.76% | — | — | |
| −0.30σ | +11.64% | −3.73% | — | |
| −1.74σ | −1.61% | +9.85% | — | |
| −0.43σ | −8.68% | −10.15% | −13.49% | |
| +1.11σ | −2.03% | −10.53% | −1.72% | |
| −0.77σ | +5.21% | +3.08% | −7.38% | |
| −0.46σ | −3.54% | +1.49% | −9.20% | |
| +0.75σ | −3.09% | −6.53% | −3.65% | |
| −0.73σ | +3.60% | +0.40% | +1.89% | |
| −0.92σ | −3.48% | 0.00% | −6.53% | |
| −0.06σ | −4.76% | −8.07% | −7.70% |
Close-to-close price changes, excluding dividends and costs. — means future or unavailable. Predictive value is still under validation.
Dealer gamma stacked at each strike. The dashed lines are this week's ±1σ edges, so whether a thick strike and a band edge land on the same price is readable in one view.
Hedging runs with the move, so levels break faster than they hold.
+1σ $103.30 — outside the published strike window ($85.00–$103.00), so not drawn on the ladder above.
All expirations, strikes within ±10% of spot. Open interest settles once a day, so these levels move on the same cadence as the σ band.
A daily snapshot, not a live quote. Prices are taken as the upstream feed supplies them.