What the 68% in a weekly ±1σ range actually means

Under a normal-distribution assumption, approximately 68.3% of outcomes fall within one standard deviation of the mean. That does not establish that stock returns are always normal, or that this service achieved 68.3% coverage. Measured coverage requires a defined universe, period and observation time.

Option-implied volatility reflects expectations embedded in option prices, while historical volatility uses realized prices. An earnings release or unexpected news can make subsequent moves differ from the fixed weekly range. The 68% label is theoretical context; this article makes no measured coverage claim for the current tracked universe.

Finishing inside a band and remaining inside it throughout the week are different events. A price that breaches −1σ on Monday and finishes inside on Friday passes an endpoint check but fails a no-breach check. Choose the question before evaluating the chart.

The board uses the displayed US regular-session close. The weekly 30-minute chart shows the price path and may have a different observation time. Compare session dates and chart timestamps before treating a difference between the last candle and the board as an error.

A +1σ breach says the displacement from the anchor exceeded the fixed width. Price can continue trending or return inside. OVERHEATED and OVERSOLD classify position beyond ±1.5σ; they are not trade instructions. Next-day returns and reversal probabilities require separate validation.

Reaching +1σ does not mean price has used up an allowance or met a ceiling. The useful question is how large the move is relative to the range set for it. Direction needs independent evidence; unvalidated indicators do not establish a conclusion on their own.

Check the close’s session and band anchor first. Read both the dollar width and σ position, distinguish intraday from closing breaches, and check the earnings and economic calendar. Define whether the recorded outcome is endpoint coverage or a path breach. Keeping that definition fixed makes later comparisons meaningful.